The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Nov. 22, as Taylor Swift and KPop Demon Hunters continue to rule the roost, we look at artists with good chances to break into the top 10 below them.
Rosalía, LUX (Columbia): Few new pop sets this year have been either as hotly anticipated or as rapturously received as Spanish singer-songwriter Rosalía’s ambitious new set LUX, which arrived on Friday (Nov. 7). That is, if you can even plausibly call the album pop: While the album certainly has its big melodies and catchy moments, it’s as influenced by opera, classical, jazz and showtunes as much as it is by any of the genres most directly feeding into contemporary top 40, and it’s sung in over a dozen different languages.
Still, LUX has proven dazzling enough to delight critics and fans alike — and given both its rapturous critical acclaim and its strong start on streaming, it seems likely to become Rosalía’s highest-charting album on the Billboard 200 to date. Aiding its first-week performance will be its availability for purchase in four different CD boxed sets — each including branded merch and a CD — as well two vinyl editions, one of which is signed by the artist.
Will it be enough to get Lux to the Billboard 200’s top 10 — which, somewhat surprisingly for an artist of Rosalía’s profile, she has still yet to even get near, peaking highest (No. 33) with 2022’s Motomami? With solid sales and steady streams, it certainly seems likely — with a top five debut also a possibility — though it depends on both how well the set maintains on DSPs, as other more-streaming-proven releases continue to perform at a high level.
But it helps that the set already seems to have something of a breakout hit: Yahritza y Su Esencia collab “La Perla,” which is still on both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and Apple Music real-time charts, and climbing again on each.
Hayley Williams, Ego Death at a Bachelor Party (Post Atlantic): Hayley Williams’ first release on her new independent imprint Post Atlantic — can you guess which major label she recently parted ways with? — has had an extremely unconventional rollout. First, in late July Williams released 17 of its tracks to her website for free streaming, before uploading them to DSPs all as individual singles in early August. Then in late August, the set was collected on streaming as the full album Ego Death at a Bachelor Party, with two new songs joining the then-19-track set.
Now, the album has reached its (possibly) final form: On Friday, Williams released Ego Death on CD and vinyl for the first time — while also re-releasing it to DSPs — all with the extra new track “Showbiz” now making the tracklist an even 20 songs. The set, which was very well received by fans and critics even with its somewhat jumbled release, should sell fairly well — with multiple vinyl variants on sale — and Ego Death should handily surpass its previous No. 173 high on the Billboard 200, possibly even threatening a new peak in the top 10.
IN THE MIX
Sombr, I Barely Know Her (SMB/Warner): One of the year’s most exciting new breakout hitmakers is coming off a very big weekend, both scoring his first Grammy nomination (for best new artist) and making his debut appearance on Saturday Night Live as a performer. Keeping the good times rolling: the first physical release on CD, vinyl and cassette of his debut album I Barely Know Her, which should give the album a nice boost on the Billboard 200, from where it currently sits at No. 27 to somewhere around its original No. 10 peak.
Yeonjun, No Labels Part 1 (Big Hit): Also threatening the top 10 this week: the debut solo EP from Yeonjun, singer/songwriter in the chart-topping Korean pop group TOMORROW X TOGETHER. The six-track set does not yet have a major presence on streaming, but is expected to sell very well, assisted by a litany of different CD variants, each including collectible paper goods, some of which is randomized per copy.
