The 2027 Grammys’ Album of the Year category will once again be stacked with a handful of top contenders. But one artist in particular leads the pack: Olivia Rodrigo. The singer-songwriter could finally take home the biggest award of the night for her third studio album, You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love. Since her debut in 2021, Rodrigo’s acclaimed albums have both gotten nods in the category, but never won. This may just be her year.
Album of the Year — Our Predictions
Phoebe Bridgers, Lost Weekend
Olivia Dean, The Art of Loving
Noah Kahan, The Great Divide
Ella Langley, Dandelion
Bruno Mars, The Romantic
Olivia Rodrigo, You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love
Rosalía, Lux
Taylor Swift, The Life of a Showgirl
Who Will Win?
Olivia Rodrigo, You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love
Olivia Rodrigo stunned audiences and critics alike with the release of her highly-anticipated You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love. The 23-year-old showed an impressive amount of maturity both in her songwriting and sound as she folded in New Wave inspirations. “She has this engagement where people are just listening front to back on repeat,” says John Stein, head of North America Editorial at Spotify. Since the album’s release in June, Rodrigo has been unstoppable, launching her own music festival, Daisy Chain Fields, and kicking off her Unraveled Tour in support of the LP. “She really puts in the work. She tours hard, she’s an incredible songwriter and really hones these tight, no fat albums,” Stein says. “I think that really works in her favor here.”
Who Should Win?
Olivia Rodrigo, You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love
Rodrigo isn’t new to the Academy. She won Best New Artist and Best Pop Vocal Album for her debut in 2022. Both of her first two albums, Sour and Guts, have also been nominated for AOTY before, but ultimately lost out. “It’s surprising she actually hasn’t won yet because she has these really strong albums that really feel like a moment,” Stein says. “She builds a world around them. That really resonates with voters,” he adds. Now, four years after her first Grammy win at 19, Rodrigo has stepped further into her artistry.
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Forecasting the Field
While Rodrigo has a strong chance, she’s also going to have some big competition in the category. It may even turn into a tight race between another Olivia: British singer Olivia Dean. While The Art of Loving was released in September 2025, it has continued to churn out new hits. “It seems like there’s always a new song emerging from this album,” Stein says. “Even though she won Best New Artist at the 2026 Grammys, it feels like the story is still building, which is really rare for an artist right now,” he adds. Part of Dean’s appeal is also the timelessness of her soul-inflected pop, which could resonate with the broad audience that makes up Grammy voters. “There may be some vote splitting there,” Stein adds.
With such a packed year, AOTY could be anyone’s prize. Stein doesn’t rule out Rosalía and her masterful Lux. “It’s completely in its own space. It’s this album that was really an unexpected sonic breakthrough where the audience really came along with this incredible artistic vision, combining all these different sounds and languages in a way that only Rosalía can do,” he says. The distinctive quality of Lux could be just the thing that helps it nab AOTY. “I could see that being maybe a surprise for some, that’d be really cool to see,” Stein says.
