Will Morgan Wallen’s ‘I’m the Problem’ Have the Endurance of His Last Two Blockbusters?

Another new album, another historic week on the charts for Morgan Wallen.

On this week’s Billboard 200 (dated May 31), Wallen’s new album I’m the Problem follows his previous releases Dangerous: The Double Album and One Thing at a Time to a No. 1 debut — this time with a 2025-best 493,000 units moved, according to Luminate, falling just 8,000 short of the 501,000 posted by One Thing upon its 2023 bow. (The latter album, which spent a 2020s-best 19 weeks atop the chart, holds at No. 4 on the Billboard 200 this week, while Dangerous slides from No. 11-12.)

Meanwhile, it launches 29 new tracks onto the Billboard Hot 100, joining eight returning Wallen Hot 100 hits for a record-setting 37 simultaneous entries on the chart, breaking his own record of 36 from One Thing‘s debut week. The 37 tracks are led by the Tate McRae-featuring “What I Want,” which debuts atop the chart — marking Wallen’s fourth No. 1 on the listing, and McRae’s first.

How do these incredible numbers compare to our pre-release expectations? And will I’m the Problem end up lasting on the chart the way its predecessors have.

1. Morgan Wallen’s I’m the Problem debuts at No. 1 with 493,000 units moved – the biggest first-week number of 2025, and just 8,000 off the total One Thing at a Time bowed with two years earlier. Is that number higher, lower or about what you expected?

Elias Leight: That count seems right on target. Streams fell off a little from One Thing at a Time, but sales increased. And Wallen had his best sales week ever on vinyl, with 48,000 copies sold. 

Jason Lipshutz: About what I expected. Morgan Wallen’s sky-high popularity with country fans has remained more or less consistent over the past few years, and while none of the singles from I’m the Problem have been as chart-dominant as “Last Night” from One Thing at a Time (yet), he’s still been able to rattle off No. 1 hits in the interim, including “Love Somebody” from the new album. Multiply that maintained success with another sprawling track list, and it’s no surprise that I’m the Problem bowed with a similar stat line to his previous 30-plus-song full-length.

Melinda Newman: It feels downright petty to say I’m surprised it didn’t surpass One Thing at a Time’s opening week — though 8,000 down is a blip when you’re in the half million range. However, Wallen’s star has only continued to ascend, and the huge pop success of “I Had Some Help” with Post Malone for sure introduced him to new fans, which made me think his first week would have been higher.

Jessica Nicholson: That number is slightly lower than what I would have expected, given that the length of this album (just barely) exceeds the length of One Thing at a Time, and this album includes many of the same collaborators, including Eric Church and ERNEST, as its predecessor, in addition to another Post Malone collab.

Andrew Unterberger: Almost exactly what I predicted, maybe a tiny bit higher. The trending of the streaming numbers for Wallen’s latest round of pre-release tracks indicated that he might have been in for a bit of a dip there from One Thing at a Time, which the vinyl release predictably mostly offset anyway. The Morgan Wallen rocket ship may have finally hit its peak, but we still probably have some time before it defintively starts heading back down to earth.

2. All but one of the 37 of the tracks hit the Hot 100 this week, led by the brand new Tate McRae-featuring “What I Want” at No. 1. Does the song sound like the obvious breakout hit of the non-previously-released tracks on the set, or do you think another will ultimately pass it?

Elias Leight: There are a few songs that sound like potential hits: “TN,” co-written by Ashley Gorley, the man with 75 No. 1s on his resume, has stadium singalong ambitions and a strikingly memorable chorus, all staccato state abbreviations and slippery assonance, while “Kick Myself” takes the self-recrimination that courses throughout the album and dresses it up as sunny pop-rock.

That said: On One Thing at a Time, the obvious breakout was not necessarily the massive hit. The title track, which translated late 1970s Fleetwood Mac into commercial country gold, seemed like a slam dunk; it peaked at No. 10 on the Hot 100. Meanwhile, the more muscular country hip-hop hybrid “Last Night” spent 16 weeks at No. 1.

Jason Lipshutz: While “What I Want” isn’t the most immediate song on the I’m the Problem track list, the combined star power of Wallen and McRae is too sizable to deny, or bet against. Wallen has linked up with McRae at the exact right point for maximum commercial gains, considering the hot streak that the ascendant pop star has been on over the past two years; following hits like “Greedy” and “Sports Car,” and by far the biggest album debut of her career with So Close to What, McRae is enjoying a sharp upward trajectory, with plenty of attention paid to any new music. Considering that Wallen’s core fan base remains country listeners, McRae’s appearance on “What I Want” should continue to corral curious pop fans, and power the song to a sustained chart run.

Melinda Newman: In terms of the Hot 100, it felt like the immediate go-to since it paired Wallen with a rising pop star and was his first duet with a woman (which was a goal of his after releasing several duets with male artists). The song feels a little ephemeral and unlikely to best the six weeks “I Had Some Help” spent at No. 1. As far as a song surpassing it, that really depends upon what that the label decides to push at radio. They’ve released some of the top selections already and the Post Malone collaboration on this set, “I Ain’t Comin’ Back,” doesn’t have the zest of “I Had Some Help” (and has already been released weeks ago to streamers).

Jessica Nicholson: Cross-genre collabs tend to do pretty well in garnering Hot 100 hits and this song has definitely raised its hand as a fan favorite. I feel like this is likely the Hot 100 breakout hit of the non-previously released songs.

Andrew Unterberger: I think its primary competition at the top of the charts in the weeks to come isn’t from any of the other new tracks, but from “Just in Case,” the advance track that still seems to have the most juice among his fans (and for my money is the best of the ITP singles thusfar). It might come down to which radio gloms onto first, though certainly with the built-in pop appeal of “What I Want” — thanks to the presence of another already-minted radio star in McRae — it should have the higher ceiling there.

3. Wallen’s 37 simultaneous entries on the Hot 100 (also including his feature appearance on Post Malone’s 2024 Song of the Summer “I Had Some Help”) breaks a record he had previously set with the One Thing release week. Do you think this will be his last time breaking that record, or do you see his albums getting even bigger in size and/or popularity in the future?

Elias Leight: As big as he is, there are still pockets of listeners who don’t listen to much country and seem to be finding out about him for the first time (several of them appear to be music critics). And in a streaming-happy world, there is nothing preventing Wallen from releasing a 50-track album next time — though the vinyl copies would start to get a little unwieldy. He could put out a call for songs tomorrow and get bombarded with 100 top-shelf demos. 

But even if he breaks the record again, at a certain point, the law of diminishing returns kicks in; adding tracks 40 to 45 has a lot less impact than adding tracks 15 to 20. And as Wallen told Theo Von, when writing that many songs, it becomes “hard to not say the same things I’ve said before.” “A lot of things that were successful and easy in the past were just whiskey, drinkin’, all that stuff,” he explained. “I’ve almost explored every angle of that that’s possible.” 

Jason Lipshutz: I mean, never bet against Morgan Wallen releasing a hit album with an improbably long track list — maybe the next one has 40 songs, or 50! — but 37 is a LOT OF simultaneous entries on the Hot 100 chart. I’m going to go against conventional wisdom and say that this is a high-water mark that Wallen either won’t try to top, or won’t be able to top, on his next effort, and that no one else will, either; I could see this record standing for quite a while.

Melinda Newman: He’s created a monster of his own doing. His fans have rewarded him for the mega-packages with huge streaming numbers so there’s no real reason to stop now. He’s proven critic-proof and for good reason. Almost every review, including Billboard’s, criticizes the number of tracks and the sheer number tread the same heartbreak road, but our opinion doesn’t mean squat to him (and shouldn’t). On the other hand, he’s set enough records that I’m not sure he needs to keep chasing them, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the next album is less. He could cut back to 15 now and simply say that was how many he was inspired to record, or he could go to 50 and say the same. He’s writing his own rules at this point.

Jessica Nicholson: It is possible that this could be his last time breaking that record, as fans could eventually get fatigued by super-sized albums. However, his most recent albums have been blockbusters and his fans are fervent about any new music he releases, so I could certainly see his next release being as lengthy or even longer.

Andrew Unterberger: I feel like the streaming numbers dipping slightly for this release despite the even-more-packed tracklist means that Wallen and his team have basically taken the volume approach as far as it’ll go. That doesn’t mean that his next album will only be 12 tracks or anything — nobody wants to risk their numbers potentially being cut in half, or worse — but I’d best this arms race he’s been waging with himself over the past couple albums’ tracklists might be coming to an end, at least.

4. If you could have Wallen go further into any particular direction that he explores on I’m the Problem – either musical or thematic – where would you have him go?

Elias Leight: He’s rightly gotten a lot of credit for his easy way with genre hybrids. This savvy blending defines some of his biggest hits, including “Last Night” and “You Proof”; strip the guitar off “Just in Case” and it could be a song for Drake or SZA, while “Miami” would barely need any adjustments to fit onto RapCaviar. But there’s also Wallen’s buoyantly tuneful side, the stuff of “One Thing at a Time” and “Single Than She Was” on the last album and “TN” on this one. On a long album full of romantic vitriol and emotional desolation, songs in this mode provide brief eruptions of uplift — a necessary counterbalance.  

Jason Lipshutz: Regardless of style or quality, any 37-song album is going to feel less focused than a full-length with a more traditional track list. I would love for Wallen to try and make his next project a 10-track affair — whittling down his collection to his strongest material, and presenting his most cohesive artistic statement. Wallen has conquered his genre with these sprawling, stream-happy albums, but such a move could prioritize creative growth in a bold new way.

Melinda Newman: The songs that are the most compelling on the album are the ones where he gets away from woe-is-me love songs (though he’s got that down) and looks at the world around him like “Working Man’s Song.” Hands down, the best song on the album is album closer “I’m a Little Crazy,” where he — like most of us — feels burdened by the insanity he sees around him, and yet is unable to look away. The world-weary tone of his vocals suits the song’s message perfectly and he manages to record and issue-oriented song without taking a political stand, which is not an easy feat these days.

Jessica Nicholson: At least one song on the album, “Working Man’s Song,” finds Wallen digging into twangy Southern rock territory and lets him display a gravelly side to his voice that we don’t often hear. Also, songs such as “Jack and Jill” are a departure from the heavy string of heartbreak songs on this album, and it would be nice to hear him continue delving into other such topics.

Andrew Unterberger: In my opinion, the most consistently engaging Wallen material always comes when he takes a real hard look at himself — not in the sense where he allows that he occasionally drinks too much and behaves poorly in relationships, but in the sense where he acknowledges that his fundamental impulses are self-destructive in a way that he legitimately doesn’t know if he can (or would) get away from. “Kick Myself” is the perfect example from this album, and perhaps the best song on here; I wish he returned to the subject as often as he returns to whiskey and romantic toxicity.

5. As I’m the Problem debuts, One Thing at a Time remains in the Billboard 200’s top five, and even 2021’s Dangerous: The Double Album is just outside the top 10. By the time of Wallen’s next album, do you expect I’m the Problem will have shown similar chart endurance?

Elias Leight: Dangerous: The Double Album is the top Billboard 200 album of the 21st century, while One Thing at a Time broke Garth Brooks’ record for most weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 for a country album. Both those releases spent at least 100 weeks in the top 10, making Wallen the first artist to ever accomplish that feat. Barring a comet hitting the earth or a zombie apocalypse, I’m the Problem will be in circulation for a long time.

Jason Lipshutz: Sure. What evidence is there to doubt him? Over the past half-decade, Wallen’s superpower has been his ability to release albums that linger around the top of the Billboard 200 for years and years, in a way that has become singular in its might. I’m the Problem could be more or less potent than his previous albums, depending on who you ask — but its one inarguable commercial quality is that it will be on the charts for a long, long time.

Melinda Newman: Yes. He’d already had three No. 1s on Country Airplay with songs from the set before its release and the one thing we’ve learned is there seems to be no burn-out on Wallen’s music with his fans. They soak up whatever he is putting out and can’t seem to get enough. There are several more songs that are sure to be released to radio which will bring in casual fans who haven’t already worn a hole in the album yet. His music wears well and it wouldn’t surprise me if two years from now when we have a new Wallen album that he has two or three albums still in the top 15.

Jessica Nicholson: It likely will. There are already some sharp fan-favorites on this album, like “Just in Case,” “Love Somebody” the Eric Church collab “Number 3 and Number 7” and the McRae duet. With his upcoming tour dates sure to feature many songs on this project, it will give fans even more reason to keep streaming its many songs.

Andrew Unterberger: I expect its endurance relative to One Thing will be like its first week numbers — maybe not quite as potent, but close enough you’d have to really squint to see much of a difference.