At this year’s just-concluded SXSW, hip-hop/pop artist Kimmortal was scheduled to play a showcase with other rising acts from Canada. About a month before, though, they heard the event had suddenly been canceled over concerns related to Donald Trump‘s escalating threats toward Canada, including tariff hikes. That meant Kimmortal, an indie artist, would have had to travel from their home in Vancouver to Austin for only one set. “I’m thinking, ‘I’m spending too much to go to the States and do one show,’” they recall. “I’m doing the math in my head and going, ‘Wow.’ There was this sense of feeling lost.”
Kimmortal ended up venturing to Austin anyway, where they were able to book a last-minute additional gig to offset travel costs. But the situation highlights a new, troubling, if also untested reality for the Canadian music scene, as musicians, promoters, agents, and others grapple with 25 percent tariffs placed on Canadian goods sold in the U.S. as well as unexpected hostility toward their country from the Trump administration. The scenario could result in anything from fewer American acts booked in Canada to added visa hassles and less profitable merch for Canadian artists.
“It’s more expensive and things are more bureaucratic, especially for independent artists,” Kimmortal says. “It feels heavy, like, ‘Why should I even try?’ There’s a sense of vagueness and of fear.”
The impact of Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods is still being played out. “We’re getting a lot of questions about this, and there’s still a lot of uncertainty,” says André Guérette of the Paquin Artists Agency, a leading Canadian talent and booking agency. Guérette says he is hearing from Canadian artists who are concerned about the shirts, CDs, and vinyl they would haul across the border to sell at their shows. Guérette estimates that tariffs could increase the costs of selling T-shirts by as much as 50 percent. “That’s a major source of revenue,” he says. “And if they suddenly have a tariff on that, that effectively eliminates any margin they make on their merchandise. A lot of artists survive on that.” (In Austin, Kimmortal opted to bring stickers to avoid the hassle. “People said, ‘Yo, do you have any shirts?’” they say. “I had to say, ‘No, it’s a hurdle to bring my own stuff.’”)
Canada House, the SXSW showcase that was intended to showcase Kimmortal and others, was canceled over general concerns about the current climate, according to Andrew Cash, CEO of the Canadian Independent Music Association (CIMA), which hosted the annual event. After Trump’s re-election, Cash took note of the ramping up of anti-Canada rhetoric (which has also included repeated threats to annex the entire country). “It was unclear to me at the time how viable it was going to be to spend a chunk of Canadian taxpayer money, where I was unsure if it would be a welcomed and safe event,” Cash says. “There were a lot of unknowns, and you want to know some basic boxes were checked. We never had any concerns about those boxes being checked before.”
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In February, just before CIMA had to start finalizing its plans and writing checks, Cash made the decision to cancel. “Was I being overly cautious?” he says. “Yeah, I sure was. And I don’t regret that. It could have been the case where Canada House would have been widely celebrated and we would have had a warm welcome, which is probably the more likely scenario. But I did what I had to do. The guy with the biggest megaphone on the planet starts trashing you, and I have the responsibility of making a decision affecting a lot of people.”
Other impacts of the tariffs are already becoming more evident. Guérette notes that visa processing delays have “exploded,” adding, “There’s a massive backlog now when artists are applying for O and P visas” — meaning non-immigrant work permits that apply to artists. “What used to take two to three months is suddenly taking five to eight. That’s a lot of uncertainty and risk to put into an already very difficult budget. It’s forcing people to change their plans or delay tours.” Kimmortal confirms those fears: “My last visa was approved a week before I had to leave Canada for my first show. It was extremely anxiety-inducing. And that was before Trump was inaugurated. Now we’re getting messages it will take longer and be more expensive.”
Fluctuations in the currency, meanwhile, could cause promoters in Canada to shy away from paying U.S. dollars or presenting American acts in their country. Kerry Clarke, artistic director of the Calgary Folk Music Festival, says the currency rate has already impacted the booking process for her event. “We have a $1.1 million artistic budget, and $235,000 of that disappears with just the current exchange,” she says of the rates. “That’s money we’re not spending on artists. The low dollar has a real impact.” As a result, the festival may not have the funds to book what she calls “marquee” American acts.
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The tariffs could make themselves known in less obvious ways as well. At Canadian festivals overall, Clarke says she wouldn’t be surprised to see ticket prices going up thanks to the new costs associated with American-made supplies. “If a company got their fencing brought in from the States, or if the porta-potties were made in the States and the company we use for them has to new buy ones, they pass that cost on to us,” she says. “And then we have to try and pass it on to the audience.” Kimmortal says their keyboardist had to talk a border crossing official down from charging $400 for transporting that instrument in and out of Canada — a large increase — but was able to talk them down to $300.
Canadian artists can’t ignore the American music market entirely, since the leap in audience sizes and income is sizable. Plenty of Canadian bands, including Cowboy Junkies and Theory of a Dead Man, are touring the U.S. or will be soon. “America is such a big market,” says Guérette. “There are 10 times more people, and 10 times more money. It is very hard to develop an artist career globally without touring in America, at least on a worldwide scale.”
Other Canadian acts are thinking twice about crossing the border, at least for the foreseeable future. The Toronto noise-art band Gloin also played at SXSW. But for the rest of the year, the group will be devoting its time to shows in Europe. “We’ve never been there before, so we wanted to concentrate on that,” says singer-guitarist John Watson. Another factor, he admits, was potential hassles in the States. “What were the visa costs going to look like, and how much will the merch I get made in Canada be tariffed?” he says. “We were expecting it to be a shitshow.”
But like other musicians as well as promoters, Watson maintains that he’s eager to resume his band’s relationship with the States. “I’ve had people close to me saying, ‘Why do you still want to go there?’” says Watson. “But we love going to the States. It’s so fun and the fans come out and the people you meet every day are awesome. I don’t want to punish the United States by not going there.”
