Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 8, Rolling Stone is breaking down 13 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night.
This was such a great year for songs that we almost wish the Grammys would revert back to 10 nominees instead of eight. But don’t worry, we managed to squeeze in two Post Malone collaborations, as well as dynamite pop stunners by Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter, and more.
“Overall, it’s been an amazing year in music, and I’m grateful for that because it’s a great distraction from all the things going on,” says Alex Tear, SiriusXM’s Vice President of Music Programming. “We’re not as manufactured as we may have been over the past. A lot of things are very real, and I think that’s important. People are just wearing their hearts on their sleeves. I feel authenticity with this whole batch.”
Song of the Year – Our Predictions
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ‘Em”
Benson Boone, “Beautiful Things”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Ariana Grande, “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)”
Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone, “Fortnight”
Who Will Win?
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
This was the year of Chappell Roan, and it all starts with her biggest hit: “Good Luck, Babe!” is on its way to hitting 800 million streams on Spotify. The explosive track is so beloved — even Tom Morello is a fan — yet many think her success was overnight. “What’s so infuriating is how people are just now taking me seriously,” she told Rolling Stone in her recent cover story. “Like, ‘You know what, bitch? I’ve been doing this shit and you’re just now catching up.’” “Good Luck, Babe!” is Billie Eilish’s favorite song of the year. If that doesn’t convince the Grammys, what will?
Editor’s picks
Who Should Win?
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Carpenter’s nu-disco stunner, from her excellent album Short n’ Sweet, gave her mainstream recognition that was long overdue. And while Roan is sure to take home Best New Artist, it would be gratifying to see Carpenter win in this category (after all, she’s a singer who’s been working late). “I’m just so happy to see Sabrina get her due,” Tear says. “It’s time. She’s been on the game in this scene for close to a decade, and it’s her turn to get flowers.”
Trending
Forecasting the Field
Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold ‘Em” and Malone and Wallen’s “I Had Some Help” make our Song of the Year predictions a little bit country — and we’re more than fine with that. “I love that pop radio ran toward Post Malone,” Tear tells us. “The mass audience is really not afraid to get their twang on. We called it the summer of Yeehaw here at Hits 1, because there were a lot of crossover artists.” And though Beyoncé was shut out of the CMA Awards nominations last month, she has a shot at winning Song of the Year. “Beyoncé is not a poser in this format,” Tear says. “She has the origins of country music running through her DNA.”
In addition to “Good Luck, Babe!” and “Espresso,” other pop contenders include Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft highlight “Birds of a Feather” and Ariana Grande’s “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love).” According to Tear, Eilish’s track recently shifted to the most-played category on Hits 1, and Grande’s is close to 1,300 spins. And if you thought there might be some Taylor Swift fatigue after The Tortured Poets Department, think again. “We try to track that, but the audience ain’t having it,” Tear says. “The millions of streams speak for itself.”
