Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 7, Rolling Stone is breaking down 10 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night.
“There were so many incredible records,” says J.J. Italiano, Head of Global Music Curation & Discovery at Spotify. That makes forecasting the Record of the Year category — which honors a song’s recorded version, and which is given to all the people involved in its crafting — a wide-open game, and one that close listeners can have a lot of fun prognosticating. Italiano says the split between Song and Record remains important to the way pop music is thought about. “It’s really cool that there is a tradition where we think about song structure and we think about recording on an annual basis,” he says. “These days, pop music moves so fast that the little details can get missed.”
Record of the Year – Our Predictions
Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”
Playboi Carti & The Weeknd, “TIMELESS”
Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”
Kendrick Lamar feat. SZA, “luther”
Chappell Roan, “The Subway”
ROSÉ & Bruno Mars, “APT.”
Tyler, the Creator feat. GloRilla, Sexyy Red, & Lil Wayne, “Sticky”
Alex Warren, “Ordinary”
Who Will Win?
Kendrick Lamar feat. SZA, “luther”
Lamar’s “luther” has a timeless feeling that isn’t just chalked up to the dreamily deployed sample of its titular soul legend’s 1982 duet with Cheryl Lynn, “If This World Were Mine.” Kendrick and SZA’s duet would mean back-to-back wins for the Compton MC, who took home Record of the Year for “Not Like Us” in February. “That was such an important moment,” says Italiano, who notes that that song’s dominance “just floated into” the ascent of the chilled-out GNX cut. That continuous dominance might be a major factor, according to Italiano: “When the moment is undeniable, or when [a song’s success] isn’t necessarily about the writing, but about how it becomes this time capsule for the year — those are the records that, more often than not, win in this category.”
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Who Should Win?
ROSÉ & Bruno Mars, “APT.”
ROSÉ and Bruno Mars’ “APT.” isn’t just an infectious culture clash; it’s an expertly crafted cut that fits the spirit of the category very well, says Italiano. “I personally feel it’s one of the best-engineered and arranged records I’ve heard an extremely long time — particularly the pre-chorus,” he says. “The arrangement and how the pre-chorus was recorded are a master stroke.”
Editor’s picks
Forecasting the Field
“Abracadabra” was a huge streaming smash that, Italiano says, dropped at exactly the right moment: “It was such a definitive Gaga song at a time when it just felt like the world needed precisely that.” Chappell Roan’s “The Subway” is, says Italiano, “an incredible song, and as a recording extremely strong.” Alex Warren’s monster ballad “Ordinary” filled a void in 2025 pop, tapping into what Italiano says is “something that’s kind of familiar, but that was missing,” while Sabrina Carpenter’s twang-tinged “Manchild” commemorated what Italiano calls “year two of Sabrina songs being ubiquitous.” Playboi Carti and the Weeknd’s “TIMELESS” is a victory lap in the form of a slick lament, while Tyler, the Creator’s twisty, brass-assisted posse cut “Sticky” melds together multiple styles and voices for a blown-out party.
