The sweeping electoral victory of Donald Trump will change the U.S. government, and the country itself, in ways that no one can yet predict. So far, though, it appears that the music industry will not be affected as dramatically as other businesses.
“I don’t think there will be that much of a change,” said a senior executive at one of the major labels. Partly that’s because music, and copyright, are no longer the hot-button issues they were a decade ago. And partly that’s because, at a time of increased partisan rancor, copyright is one of a few genuinely bipartisan issues, according to a half-dozen executives. Because it brings together Democrats who tend to look favorably on the media business and Republicans who believe in strong property rights, passing legislation often depends more on building a coalition of legislators from both parties.
There are no music companies in Trump’s crosshairs, at least from his own public comments, and he tends to look favorably on entertainers, even when they tend not to return that respect. Indeed, right-wing Republicans have been far more critical of media companies and online platforms than of major labels and movie studios.
The most immediate music business issue before the government is the Department of Justice antitrust case against Live Nation Entertainment, which seeks to break up the company. Trump will appoint a new attorney general to replace Merrick Garland, and that appointee will almost certainly replace Jonathan Kanter, who runs the antitrust division. The future of the case will depend on Kanter’s replacement, and several music executives and antitrust experts said that it’s hard to predict how that person will proceed.
“We congratulate President-elect Trump on his election,” said a spokesperson for Live Nation Entertainment. “Live Nation is proud to help bring joy to fans through concerts, sports and other live events. We look forward to working with the incoming administration to continue driving the positive impacts our industry has on American jobs and local economies.”
Several executives without direct knowledge of the matter speculated that, for optics reasons, the DOJ would be less likely to drop the case than to pursue a low-stakes settlement, but all of them made clear that there was no way to know.
Right now, the big issue in the music business is artificial intelligence, and the industry has been lobbying for the Nurture Originals, Foster Art, and Keep Entertainment Safe (NO FAKES) Act, which would protect the voices and likenesses of human creators. The bill was introduced in the Senate in July and the House of Representatives in September. It has sponsors on both sides of the aisle, including Senators Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.). (One might presume they do not agree on much else.) The industry is going to push to pass it in the “lame-duck” Congress, before the end of the year, but it will conflict with other priorities, and several executives said that would be a long shot. Otherwise, it will be re-introduced next year, and the changes in government are not expected to affect its chances much.
Some of the policies Trump has said he will pursue, such as tariffs for imports, could be bad for U.S. business on a broader level. This could make physical goods more expensive, especially merchandise, such as T-shirts. It could also make CDs and vinyl more expensive, although only by so much, since they could also be manufactured in the U.S.
It is also possible that changes to the tax system could affect catalog sales, as well as the desirability of songs and recordings as an investment. But it is unclear how much taxes will change — and other economic factors, such as interest rates, are likely to affect investment calculations more.
