Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 8, Rolling Stone is breaking down 13 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night.
In a genre where 30-track playlists are often presented as “albums,” country music had a banner year for legitimate pieces of succinct art. Sturgill Simpson stepped off the grid and into the persona of Johnny Blue Skies, Kacey Musgraves cultivated an earth mother worldview, Lainey Wilson turned an honest eye toward her sudden fame, and Chris Stapleton made his most cohesive album since his debut, Traveller. And then there was Beyoncé, who channeled her Texas upbringing and the Black roots of country music into a true masterwork. While the CMA Awards may have snubbed Cowboy Carter, the Grammys likely won’t make the same mistake.
“I’m going to make an assumption that she does get recognition that she missed at the CMA Awards,” says Storme Warren, host of country station the Big 615 on TuneIn and a 41-year veteran of broadcasting. “No matter what your opinion is of her as a country artist, you cannot deny the universal success of this album.”
Says Rachel Whitney, Head of Editorial, Nashville, Spotify: “I would be shocked if Beyoncé is not in the country album category.”
Best Country Album – Our Predictions
Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
Kacey Musgraves, Deeper Well
Sturgill Simpson, Passage Du Desir
Chris Stapleton, Higher
Lainey Wilson, Whirlwind
Who Will Win?
Chris Stapleton, Higher
Stapleton won three times in this category, and that type of consistency and voter familiarity can’t be underestimated. But Higher is also chock full of stellar songs — like lead single “White Horse,” which won Best Country Song at last year’s Grammys, and “Think I’m in Love With You” — making it a worthy victor. Warren says Stapleton found a new gear with the album. “What Stapleton is doing as a writer and a vocalist, and his connection to his fan base and to country music, is just incredible,” he says. “I think Higher represents the true evolution of who he is.”
Editor’s picks
Who Should Win?
Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter
To listen to Cowboy Carter from start to finish is to receive an education not only in the Black influence on country music, but what led Beyoncé to make this stunner of an album. The LP is every bit Beyoncé’s story as it is country’s. “It’s who she is,” says Whitney. “She pulled together an extraordinary project with the help of a lot of incredible country songwriters and artists that envelops both the history and the future of country music in a really elegant way.”
Forecasting the Field
Wilson took home Best Country Album last year for Bell Bottom Country, and Warren thinks she could do it again with Whirlwind. “This is Lainey Wilson’s Joshua Tree. It represents everything that she’s wanted to become,” he says. “This album is top to bottom spectacular.” Warren also says to keep an eye on Musgraves, who returned to a more country sound with Deeper Well. “She has a poetic, visual, cinematic gift that just does not exist with a lot of artists,” he says. “The best ones have that.”
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Whitney is high on Deeper Well too, and compares Musgraves’ renewed country vibes with those of Sturgill Simpson’s Passage Du Desir. “This year we’re seeing some artists come back to their original sound and reach back to their fans with music that sounds a lot like what they broke out with,” she says. But Whitney cautions not to sleep on an unconventional album nominee: the soundtrack to the summer hit Twisters, which features a mix of big names (Luke Combs, Miranda Lambert) and rising stars (Wyatt Flores, Warren Zieders). “Twisters was a real fan favorite this year and had a lot of great songs on it,” she says. “In some cases, it even elevated artists.”
Luke Combs’ Fathers & Sons and Willie Nelson’s The Border could also find themselves in the race, but Zach Bryan’s Great American Bar Scene may be conspicuously absent — according to reports, Bryan didn’t submit the album for Grammy consideration.
