The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 14, we look at the chances of breakout stars Ella Langley and Olivia Dean to depose Harry Styles and score their first career No. 1.
Ella Langley, “Choosin’ Texas” (SAWGOD/Columbia/Triple Tigers): As Harry Styles’ “Aperture” declines in its second week of release, the door is open for Langley’s new smash to seize the top spot on the Hot 100. The steady climb of “Choosin’ Texas” to the top tier of the chart was punctuated by it jumping 6-2 this week, reaching a new peak in its 15th week on the chart.
The song remains a strong performer on each Hot 100 component chart, ranking No. 2 on Streaming Songs, No. 3 on Digital Song Sales and No. 14 on Radio Songs this week, having previously topped both of the first two listings. Radio is still where “Texas” has the most room to grow, and next week it’s challenging for both its first week at No. 1 on Country Airplay (where it holds at No. 2 this week behind HARDY’s “Favorite Country Song”) and its first week in the top 10 on Radio Songs — as it continues to gradually amass top 40 spins, currently bubbling under the Pop Airplay chart.
If “Texas” can make it to No. 1, it would not only be Langley’s first trip to the top spot, but an extremely rare achievement as a Hot 100-topper by a woman in a lead role that also led Hot Country Songs. This century, the only two to previously have managed that come with qualifiers: Beyoncé, who went country with “Texas Hold ‘Em” in 2024, and Taylor Swift, with a 2021 re-recording of a 2012 song released when she was already well on her way to crossover pop stardom (“All Too Well [Taylor’s Version]”), following “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” in 2012.
Olivia Dean, “Man I Need” (Polydor/Island/Republic): The week before “Texas” shot to No. 2, it was Dean’s turn to reach a new peak of No. 2 with her own long-building breakout hit, “Man I Need.” The song has already conquered the airwaves, capturing the top spot on Radio Songs this week for the first time, but it has begun to slip a little bit on DSPs, dropping to No. 4 on Streaming Songs as Langley takes the lead between the two on the overall Hot 100.
That may reverse course next week, however, thanks to Dean’s big night at the Grammys on Sunday (Feb. 1). Dean took home the best new artist trophy — giving a memorable speech about being the “granddaughter of an immigrant” and a “product of bravery” — and also delivered a winning “Man” performance as part of the best new artist medley. Dean’s catalog was given a boost on DSPs as a result following the performance, with “Man” (4-3) swapping places with “Texas” on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart for Monday.
Whether or not “Man” can secure its (and Dean’s) first week at No. 1 — and give the Hot 100 back-to-back U.K. artists for the first time since Styles’ “As It Was” succeeded Glass Animals’ “Heat Waves” in April 2022 — may depend on how much those gains can hold up throughout the week. Things are getting crowded early on the Hot 100 this year, though, and “Texas” is still growing on radio, so if “Man” can’t capture the No. 1 this week, it might not get another chance this good for some time, if at all.
IN THE MIX
Noah Kahan, “The Great Divide” (Mercury/Republic): He might not get as much mainstream attention as Bruno Mars or Harry Styles did in their returns, but don’t discount the new single from Noah Kahan in the discussion for next week’s chart. The singer-songwriter’s Friday (Jan. 30) release “The Great Divide” — title track to his upcoming album, long-awaited follow-up to his 2022 blockbuster breakthrough Stick Season — debuted atop the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart, and it still resides there three days later, helped by the song’s music video debuting during a Grammys commercial break, presented by MasterCard.
Despite the strong streaming debut — and likely a good sales showing, as the song has ranked in the iTunes top 10 since its debut — “Divide” may not have the immediate radio support to be a true threat for a No. 1 bow on the Hot 100. (It’s aiming to debut on each of next week’s Alternative Airplay, Adult Alternative Airplay and Adult Pop Airplay charts, though.) Regardless, it has a good chance of instantly entering as Kahan’s career-best showing on the Hot 100, with the No. 9 peak of “Stick Season” in early 2014 marking his current highest to date.
Bad Bunny, “DtMF” (Rimas): We’re not even at Bad Bunny’s biggest weekend of the month yet — that’s coming next Sunday, with a rather high-profile gig you may have heard mention of at some point — but he’s already zooming up the streaming charts, thanks to his massive night at the Grammys. The global superstar not only picked up an historic album of the year victory for his Debí Tirar Más Fotos album, he gave multiple memorable acceptance speeches (including one where he simply declared “ICE Out”) and was the focus of comedic bits from host Trevor Noah all evening.
Consequently, his streams have absolutely exploded on both Spotify and Apple Music. On the former, he had eight songs re-enter the Daily Top Songs USA top 200, with another four speeding back into the top 40 — led by “DtMF” getting all the way to No. 2 — while on the latter, he has 21 songs as of posting on the real-time top 200, with “DtMF” topping the ranking outright.
With Bad Bunny only appearing once on the Hot 100 this week, with “Voy a Llevarte Pa PR” ranking at No. 85, it’s unlikely that this massive mid-week bump will immediately get him back to the top of the chart. (“DtMF” hit No. 2 last January when the album first topped the Billboard 200; in May, it also became one of the set’s six No. 1s on Latin Airplay.) But Grammy buzz might end with him recharting a few titles, likely led by “DtMF” — and again, this isn’t even the main event of Bad Bunny’s February, so if this is what he can do following Music’s Biggest Night, just imagine what’s in store when he’s performing on sports and television’s biggest night in four days’ time. (Worth noting that Bad Bunny has still yet to score a Hot 100 No. 1 entirely of his own, only reaching the top previously alongside J Balvin and Cardi B on “I Like It.”)
